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报告题目：The Paradox of De-risking: Global Supply Chain Rerouting in Response to the U.S.-China Trade War

报告摘要：The U.S.-China Trade War has led to a significant interest in de-risking global supply chains from China. U.S. importers have increasingly turned to intermediary countries like Vietnam and Mexico in order to diversify their supplier base. However, in doing so, are they truly de-risking, or are they retaining indirect exposure to China by rerouting their supply chains via these third-party countries? Utilizing transaction level customs import-export data, we develop a novel measure to assess firm-product-level indirect exposure of U.S. importers to China via their suppliers in Vietnam and Mexico. Our findings indicate a substantial increase in indirect exposure to China post-Trade War – the indirect exposure of U.S. importers to China through Vietnam increased by approximately 21%, while through Mexico by about 5.5% – suggesting that despite efforts to de-risk, U.S. supply chains remain intricately linked to China via third-party nations. We further explore the role of product channels, observing that more downstream products and products for which China has a significant revealed comparative advantage (RCA) experience greater increases in indirect exposure through Vietnam. In contrast, more upstream products exhibit more substantial increases through Mexico. Our results underscore the potential unintended consequences of government policies on global supply chain dynamics and the necessity for reassessing global supply chain risks and dependencies.

报告人简介：Vernon Hsu is a Choh-Ming Li Chair Professor in the CUHK Business School, The Chinese University of Hong Kong. He had also held faculty positions at the University of New South Wales, Australia, George Mason University, USA, and Hong Kong University of Science & Technology. Professor Hsu’s research interests include operations and supply chain management. Some of his current research projects investigate the integration of international tax and financial planning with global supply chain management. His research has been published in journals such as Management Science, Manufacturing and Service Operations Management, Operations Research and Productions and Operations Management.